China’s central bank said Thursday interest rates would rise for the sixth time this year as the government strives to curb rising inflation and stop the country’s booming economy from overheating.
The widely expected hike takes effect Friday in the wake of blistering 11.5 percent economic growth over the first nine months of the year and with inflation at a near 11-year high of 6.9 percent.
“This rate adjustment will be conducive to implementing tight monetary policy to prevent the tendency for fast economic growth to overheating,” a central bank statement said.
It also said the hike came against a backdrop of rising domestic prices and in order to guide public expectations about inflation. The cost of food and natural resources has been blamed for rising inflation in China.
The hike raises deposit rates 27 basis points and the lending rate 18 basis points. The one-year deposit rate becomes 4.14 percent and the one-year lending rate goes up to 7.47 percent.
Analysts say China also wants to curb loan growth and take the fizzle out of potential asset price bubbles, such as in the share and property markets, to try and ensure economic stability.
“What is clear is that sentiment in Beijing is changing — and it’s likely that the first quarter of 2008 will see more aggressive action to attempt to control inflation,” said Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green.
That would have some effect but food inflation would be a stubborn nut to crack for at least the next six months, he said.
Despite the latest rise in interest rates, experts point out inflation exceeds deposit rates — a problem known as negative real interest rates, which encourages people to invest in shares and property rather than bank accounts.
It also ramps up spending by corporations, driving investment in fixed assets, one of the key drivers of Asia’s second largest economy.
Wang Xiaohui, a Shanghai-based economist with Sinolink Securities, said there was little chance of inflation easing before the end of 2007.
“This means that the problem of negative real interest rates will become more serious,” the expert said.
China’s trade surplus was also at record highs and credit growth was likely to accelerate, creating pressure for more measures to cool the economy, he said.
Premier Wen Jiabao has previously forecast 11.5 percent full-year economic growth, which would be the fifth straight year of double-digit expansion.
Beijing has already announced a policy shift in 2008 toward “tight” monetary measures from its long-standing “prudent” stance. It has also made curbing inflation a priority.
Earlier this month the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said China’s economy faced serious inflation risks which, if unchecked, could fuel yet more speculation in stocks and property.
China’s last interest rate hike was in September. It has also raised the amount banks must keep in reserve 10 times in a bid to control loan growth, with the bank reserve ratio set to hit 14.5 percent on Christmas Day.